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A hipótese de Kuznets e mudanças na relação entre desigualdade e crescimento de renda no Brasil

  • Fabricio Linhares
  • Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira
  • Guilherme Diniz Irffi
  • Cecília Maria Bortolassi Macedo

A relação entre desigualdade e renda na forma de “U” invertido, conhecida como a hipótese de Kuznets, ainda é bastante controversa. Diversos trabalhos têm analisado os dados brasileiros, mas os resultados não são tão claros quanto a sua validade. Este artigo investiga essa relação para um painel de dados no Brasil e sua heterogeneidade entre as unidades que compõem o país. Estimativas de modelos econométricos com efeito threshold mostram que a forma de “U” invertido, como sugerido por Kuznets, só ocorre nas economias com renda per capita mensal acima de R$ 258,00. Para as demais, mudanças na renda não têm efeito direto sobre a desigualdade. Esse resultado mostra que políticas de crescimento econômico não necessariamente melhoram a distribuição de renda de todos os estados brasileiros. O governo deveria, portanto, investir na criação de programas mais direcionados a cada perfil socioeconômico estadual e reavaliar políticas governamentais do tipo Top-Down para a superação de problemas sociais, entre eles a desigualdade na distribuição de renda no Brasil. The Kuznets Hypothesis and Changes in the Income Inequality-Growth Relationship :: This study assesses Kuznets Hypothesis and the heterogeneity in the inequality-growth relationship for a panel of Brazilian States. It refines upon previous work by examining the relationship between inequality and growth in non-linear panel data models. Controlling for other relevant variables, econometric results show that the “U” inverted relationship suggested by Kuznets emerges as a clear empirical regularity in the economies with monthly per capita GDP above R$ 258. For the others, it seems that income growth has no direct effect on inequality. This finding shows that federal public policies have to take more into account the heterogeneous economic dynamics across regions in Brazil.

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Article provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada in its journal Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico.

Volume (Year): 42 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (dez.)
Pages: 403-432

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Handle: RePEc:ppe:ppeart:y:2012:v:42:i:3:p:403-432
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