Beyond 2050: From deployment to renewal of the global solar and wind energy system

The global energy transition depends on large-scale photovoltaic (PV) and wind power deployment. While 2050 targets suggest a transition endpoint, sustaining these systems beyond mid-century requires continuous renewal, marking a fundamental yet often overlooked shift in industrial dynamics. This study examines the transition from initial deployment to long-term renewal, using a two-phase growth model: an exponential expansion followed by capacity stabilization. By integrating this pattern with a Weibull distribution of PV panel and wind turbine lifespans, we estimate the annual production required for both expansion and maintenance. Our findings highlight two key factors influencing production dynamics: deployment speed and lifespan. When deployment duration (from 10% to 90% of target capacity) is shorter than 1.3 times the average lifespan, production overshoots and exhibits damped oscillations due to successive installation and replacement cycles. In contrast, gradual deployment leads to a smooth increase before stabilizing at the renewal rate. Given current growth rates, the PV industry could experience significant oscillations, from 20% to 150% of global production, while wind power follows a monotonic growth trajectory. These oscillations, driven by ambitious energy targets, may result in cycles of overproduction and underproduction, affecting industrial stability. Beyond solar and wind, this study underscores a broader challenge in the energy transition: shifting from infrastructure expansion to long-term maintenance. Addressing this phase is crucial for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of renewable energy systems beyond 2050.Author summary: The recent surge in photovoltaic and wind power is pivotal for the energy transition. While extensive literature projects growth up to 2050, the industrial challenges of the post-2050 era—specifically regarding infrastructure renewal—remain underexplored. This study investigates the manufacturing implications of sustaining renewable capacity through the end of the century, modeling a transition from rapid expansion to a renewal-driven saturation phase. Analyzing the International Energy Agency’s and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scenarios, we find that rapid PV deployment risks creating significant “boom-and-bust” manufacturing cycles. Because massive quantities of panels are installed by 2040 with 30-year lifespans, a synchronized “replacement wave” emerges around 2060, causing extreme production volatility. Conversely, wind power does not exhibit these oscillations due to different deployment rates and lifespans. These cycles present a critical industrial dilemma. Mitigating them would require either slowing initial deployment, thereby jeopardizing climate targets, or shortening equipment lifespans, which increases resource consumption. Our findings highlight a fundamental trade-off in the energy transition: balancing urgent climate goals with material sobriety and long-term industrial stability.