One Belt, Many Roads: Investigating China’s foreign investment and land-use impacts in Southeast Asia

Foreign direct investment (FDI) can reshape landscapes in developing countries, but its impact remains unclear. This study examines how China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) FDI impacts land-cover and land-use change in Southeast Asia, a key trade partner receiving significant Chinese infrastructure investments. Focusing on areas with BRI investments from 2008 to 2018, we utilize satellite data to analyze land-use changes across Southeast Asia (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam), particularly urban growth and deforestation. We find that districts that received BRI investment experienced nearly a 5% greater rate of deforestation than the regional average, with a 0.007% decrease in tree cover associated with every 1% increase in Chinese investment. Districts receiving investments also showed greater increases in cropland and grasslands. While statistical tests indicate the immediate land-cover changes are modest, our findings suggest potential future environmental consequences in Southeast Asia, particularly with ongoing economic development.Author summary: We explore how large-scale Chinese investments are affecting changes in land-use in parts of Southeast Asia. We focus on infrastructure projects supported by China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global development effort that has directed billions of dollars towards roads, railways and other construction in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam. Here, we use satellite data from 2008 to 2018 to understand how these large-scale Chinese infrastructure projects might be changing the way land is used, particularly in terms of forests, farmland and urban growth. We found that areas receiving investment experienced more deforestation than nearby regions, along with an increase in farmland and grasslands. Although the short-term environmental changes appear small, longer-term impacts may emerge as development continues. Our findings add to ongoing discussions about the environmental costs of global investment and development, drawing greater attention to how infrastructure projects are planned and monitored, especially in potentially ecologically sensitive regions.