Ecological traits predict extinction risk of the world’s traded carnivores

Wildlife trade is a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet how trade interacts with species’ ecological traits and extinction risk remains underexplored. Carnivores warrant special attention because they are disproportionately exploited and vulnerable to extinction compared to other taxa. We analyzed 171,637 international trade records spanning 50 years (1975–2024) for 129 carnivore species listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We analyzed trade volumes across the globe and then used logistic regression to evaluate associations between ecological traits and extinction risk, as well as family-level differences in extinction risk. Trade volumes were dominated by exports from North America and Europe and imports concentrated in East Asia, highlighting persistent transcontinental trade. Logistic regression identified longer generation length and greater dispersal distance as positively associated with higher extinction risk, whereas broader habitat breadth was associated with lower extinction risk. Among carnivore families, only Ursidae (bears) exhibited significantly greater odds of being threatened relative to the Canidae (canids) reference family. Our findings demonstrate that ecological traits are associated with extinction risk within CITES-listed carnivores, supporting the use of trait-based approaches as a complementary tool for conservation assessment and monitoring of internationally traded species.