Why can’t they “Go back”? — A multi-group comparative analysis of pre-service teachers’ hometown return intention in local universities based on latent profile analysis

The high-quality development of rural education urgently requires strengthening the supply of outstanding rural teachers. Based on Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), a survey of 6,546 teacher education students from local universities in Heilongjiang Province revealed that the willingness to teach in rural areas among three identified profiles—the Weak Foundation Profile, the Development-Oriented Profile, and the Excellence-Prepared Profile—is significantly influenced by academic year and family capital. This influence manifests differentiated patterns via the “environment-person-behaviour” transmission pathway: family support acts as a common motivating factor for rural teaching willingness across all three groups; for foundation-weak students, professional competence primarily exerts a mediating effect through the family support pathway; for development-oriented students, professional competence shows no significant mediating effect in this pathway; and for excellence-oriented students, the willingness to return to their hometowns for rural teaching is jointly driven by the dynamic interplay between environmental factors and individual professional competence. Therefore, a differentiated approach is imperative: policy orientation should strengthen the enabling role of family support, optimise the pathways for localised training and incentives for rural teachers, and establish a growth system for rural education leaders. These measures will further refine the long-term mechanisms for attracting and retaining talent in rural teaching positions.