Climate change-driven compound dust storm and heatwave extremes in Central Asia under future CMIP6 scenarios

Central Asia (CA) faces rising temperatures and shifting atmospheric conditions, increasing the urgency to address extreme events like heatwaves and dust storms. This study examines the co-evolution and regional co-variability of heatwaves and atmospheric dust loading, represented by dust extinction aerosol optical thickness (AOT). Using a multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and high-resolution reanalysis datasets, we analyzed heatwave indices alongside AOT across six clusters from 1992 to 2100. Results show a substantial rise in heatwave activity, with increases in heatwave frequency and intensity projected across much of CA, particularly under future emission scenarios. AOT trends vary regionally, with both increasing and decreasing trends across clusters, periods, and emission scenarios. Spatial and temporal correlations, evaluated with Benjamini–Hochberg False Discovery Rate (BH-FDR) correction for multiple location-level tests, show regionally heterogeneous dust–heatwave co-variability, with both positive and negative associations across clusters and scenarios. The strongest FDR-supported relationships occur in selected cluster–index combinations, indicating localized and scenario-dependent co-variability rather than a uniform compound dust–heatwave signal across CA. These findings highlight the need for targeted adaptation strategies for CA, which faces intensifying heatwaves and spatially variable dust-related atmospheric conditions. This study supports early warning systems, risk assessments, and mitigation and resilience measures to safeguard vulnerable communities and ecosystems and strengthen resilience to these hazards in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030.