Accumulation or adaptation? A longitudinal study of role conflict and turnover intention among Chinese social workers

The Job Demands–Resources (JD-R) model suggests that job demands and resources influence employees’ turnover intention (TI), yet less is known about how these effects unfold over time. Drawing on the competing perspectives of accumulation and adaptation, this study examines whether TI among social workers is shaped by the cumulative effects of past role conflict (RC) or by responses to changing work conditions. Using matched panel data from the 2019 and 2022 waves of the China Social Work Longitudinal Study (CSWLS), the study investigates both lagged and change effects of RC and workplace support (WS). The results show that the association between baseline RC and subsequent TI becomes non-significant after controlling for prior TI. In contrast, changes in RC are positively associated with changes in TI, while changes in WS are negatively associated with changes in TI. Taken together, these findings indicate that baseline RC does not remain independently associated with subsequent TI after prior TI is taken into account, whereas changes in work conditions correspond to changes in TI over time. This study extends the JD-R model by introducing a longitudinal perspective and highlights the importance of considering changes in job demands and resources alongside their prior levels when examining turnover intention over time. Overall, the pattern of findings is more consistent with the adaptation perspective than with a persistent independent association of baseline RC with subsequent TI, contributing to a more dynamic understanding of workforce stability among social workers.