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Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)

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  • Shuming Cui
  • Zhenxing Yang
  • Hemu Du
  • Rongheng Liu
  • Shijie Liu

Abstract

NBA offenses increasingly reflect a “space-and-pace” approach, yet it remains unclear whether recent tempo changes primarily reflect long-run strategic adaptation or the 2018–19 14-second offensive-rebound shot-clock reset. We combined team-season metrics with shot-location data from the NBA Stats API across 21 seasons (2004–05–2024–25; > 420,000 field-goal attempts). Analyses included spatial heatmaps and a Spatial Allocation Index (SAI), segmented regression for league Pace, and multivariate OLS models for Offensive Rating (ORtg). Heatmaps showed a substantial reduction in mid-range attempts and greater concentration at the rim and beyond the arc; SAI increased from 58.98% to 69.99%. Segmented regression identified a marked change around 2018–19, with an immediate increase in Pace and a post-2018 trend that flattened and became slightly negative (pre-2018 slope ≈ 0.44 possessions/season; post-2018 net slope ≈ −0.26). Turnover percentage declined despite higher tempo (p

Suggested Citation

  • Shuming Cui & Zhenxing Yang & Hemu Du & Rongheng Liu & Shijie Liu, 2026. "Shot-location polarization and post-2018 pace stabilization in the NBA: Evidence from 21 seasons of team and shot-coordinate data (2004–2025)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 21(9), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0358360
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0358360
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