Assessment of genomic prediction and genetic gain in multi‑population half-sib families in the perennial grass crop intermediate wheatgrass

The University of Minnesota has been domesticating the perennial forage intermediate wheatgrass (IWG) since 2011 using a combination of conventional methods and modern breeding tools such as genomic selection. Globally, most IWG selection nurseries are spaced-planted individuals of several hundred genotypes whereas commercial fields established for grain production are row-planted panmictic populations. This study evaluated genomic prediction models and estimated genetic gain in yield and agronomic performance of row-planted IWG half-sib families assessed over 3 years and 2 locations, Lamberton and St. Paul, MN, USA. The strongest trait correlation was negative (r = −0.49) between 2023 St. Paul height and 2022 St. Paul seed size. The three St. Paul environments were more similar for plant height and seed size and so were the Lamberton environments yet no specific trend was observed for grain yield. Evaluation of different univariate and multivariate genomic prediction models showed that multivariate models outperformed the best univariate models by 23 percentage points, yet no single multivariate model was the best predictor of all traits. Cross-environment predictions were the best among St. Paul environments and no single environment was the best predictor of the remaining environments. Genetic gain estimates indicated a 20 kg ha-1 increase in grain yield and 3 cm reduction in plant height per breeding cycle. While no single model predicted all traits with high accuracy, results obtained in this study suggest that evaluating IWG sibs in row plots followed by genomic trait predictions could lead to desired breeding progress for desired traits.