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Statistical misreasoning in online content about vaccines: Implications and recommendations for addressing disinformation

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  • Michal Ordak

Abstract

Background: Statistical misreasoning is a key mechanism through which anti-vaccine narratives distort scientific information and undermine public confidence in immunisation. Although prior research has examined thematic and ideological features of vaccine misinformation, little is known about the specific errors in numerical reasoning that shape users’ interpretations of vaccine-related data. Methods: A total of 597 Polish-language Facebook posts expressing anti-vaccine views and containing references to statistical information were analysed. Based on previous research on statistical cognition and an inductive review of the material, a coding scheme comprising ten categories of statistical misreasoning was developed and applied to all posts. Quantitative analyses were then conducted to examine how frequently these categories occurred and which combinations of errors appeared together. Results: The most prevalent forms of misreasoning were the correlation–causation fallacy (70%, p

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Ordak, 2026. "Statistical misreasoning in online content about vaccines: Implications and recommendations for addressing disinformation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 21(8), pages 1-14, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0355341
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0355341
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