Cardiovascular disease risk prediction models for people living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A scoping review protocol

Background: The landscape of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) care has dramatically shifted with the advent of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART), transforming HIV from a rapidly fatal illness into a chronic, manageable disease. This success, however, has unveiled new challenges, primarily the increased prevalence of non-AIDS-related comorbidities, with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) emerging as a critical concern for people living with HIV (PLWH). CVD has now become a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in this population, and its risk assessment is imperative. However, there is scanty data on CVD risk prediction models developed and/or applied among PLWH in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Therefore, this planned scoping review aims to systematically map existing literature on CVD risk prediction models developed and/or used among PLWH in SSA. The review will identify the models that have been developed, used, and validated in the region. Methods: The scoping review protocol will follow an established framework for conducting scoping reviews. The study will employ the methodological approaches by Arksey and O’Malley and its recent advances, the Joanna Briggs Institute, and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols. The objective of the scoping review will be achieved through a comprehensive published literature search from 01 January 2000 to 03 June 2026 across five selected databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and CINAHL, based on a predefined strategy. Inclusion criteria will focus on studies written in English that develop, validate, or apply CVD risk prediction models among PLWH in SSA. The screening of search results and data extraction will be conducted by two independent reviewers. Expected outcomes and conclusions: The review will synthesize and summarize the existing literature on CVD risk prediction developed and used among PLWH in SSA, identify knowledge gaps, and provide insights to inform the development of a novel CVD risk prediction model specific to PLWH in SSA. Registration: Open Science Framework https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/XVFUA