Identifying policy-relevant traffic crash risk factors in Cheongju, South Korea using logistic regression and explainable machine learning

Rapid urbanization and increasing traffic volumes have made the occurrence of traffic crashes and the resulting harm a major public safety concern. This study analyzes traffic crash data from Cheongju, a mid-sized city in Chungcheongbuk-do, to identify key determinants of crash severity and provide evidence-based policy recommendations. Our approach is novel in that it integrates statistical modeling and machine learning methodologies; this dual approach not only overcomes the limitations inherent in using either technique alone but also allows for the identification of consistent risk factors influencing traffic crash severity that may have gone unrecognized otherwise. Marginal effects of explanatory variables were interpreted using ordinal logistic regression, while feature importance in machine learning models—including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM—was evaluated using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values. Both analytical approaches consistently identified traffic signal violations, failure to comply with safe driving obligations, and the absence of a median barrier on undivided roads as significant predictors of crash severity. By leveraging empirical data specific to Cheongju, our research provides regionally tailored insights that distinguish our work from prior studies with broader or less localized focus. These findings highlight the need for stricter enforcement of traffic regulations and structural improvements in roadway infrastructure and can inform policymakers in formulating effective, context-specific measures to enhance road safety.