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Burden of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children and adolescents in low- and middle-income countries from 1990 to 2023 and projections to 2050: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2023

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  • Peng Liu
  • ZiXin Xu
  • Wenfu Song
  • Jianxiong Yang
  • Jianbao Li

Abstract

Background: Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) is the most common and curable malignancy in children and adolescents, yet it remains a significant health threat. Despite global survival improvements driven by new drugs and treatment protocols, comprehensive data on disease burdens and attributable risk factors across diverse socio-economic contexts remain limited. This study evaluated the epidemiological characteristics, temporal trends, and modeled attributable risk factors of ALL in LMICs from 1990 to 2023. Methods: Using GBD 2023 data, we analyzed ALL incidence, mortality, and DALYs in children and adolescents (0–19 years), stratified by World Bank income groups. We assessed temporal trends via Joinpoint regression, projected burdens to 2050 using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model, and evaluated risk attribution for occupational benzene and formaldehyde exposure. Results: In 2023, LMICs reported 64,477 new ALL cases and 30,909 deaths, with a higher burden in males. While the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) declined overall, absolute cases rose due to population growth. Although occupational benzene and formaldehyde exposure were the only modeled risk factors, their Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were negligible (

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Liu & ZiXin Xu & Wenfu Song & Jianxiong Yang & Jianbao Li, 2026. "Burden of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children and adolescents in low- and middle-income countries from 1990 to 2023 and projections to 2050: A systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2023," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 21(6), pages 1-11, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0350223
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0350223
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