Machine learning identifies pupil size and corneal thickness as key predictors of axial elongation rate

Purpose: This study aimed to develop a machine learning-based prediction model for myopia progression using ocular biometric parameters to provide an objective assessment tool for clinical practice. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients treated at Shanghai Parkway Health Ophthalmology Department as the training set, and myopic individuals from the Optometry Center of Peking University People’s Hospital as the validation set. Demographic and biometric data were collected, including central corneal thickness (CCT), axial length (AL), corneal curvature (K-value), anterior chamber depth (ACD), corneal diameter (WTW), and pupil size (PS). Seven machine learning models (e.g., XGBoost, random forest, support vector machine) were employed for modeling, with performance optimized via 5-fold cross-validation. Model accuracy was evaluated using mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of determination (R²), and variable importance was analyzed. Results: No statistically significant differences were observed in baseline characteristics between the training and validation sets (all P > 0.05). The XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance, achieving R² = 0.913 (MSE = 0.005) on the training set and R² = 0.766 (MSE = 0.016) on the test set. Variable importance analysis revealed pupil size (score 100) and corneal thickness (40.88) as the key predictors of axial elongation rate, followed by age of onset (17.96). Conclusion: The machine learning-based prediction model effectively utilizes ocular biometric data to assess myopia progression risk, with pupil size and corneal thickness identified as core predictive factors. This model provides a quantitative tool for early clinical intervention. Future studies should expand the sample size and incorporate additional biomarkers to optimize performance.