An interpretable deep learning framework for predictive modeling of postoperative infections in ICU patients

A significant proportion of intensive care unit (ICU) patients undergo surgical procedures, and some may develop postoperative infections. Accurately predicting postoperative infection risk and identifying key contributing factors is crucial for improving postoperative management and understanding infection mechanisms. However, this task is challenging due to the complex interplay of multiple risk factors. While machine learning models can model these intricate associations to predict postoperative infection risk, their lack of interpretability – failing to uncover each factor’s impact—hinders their adoption in clinical settings. To address this difficulty, we introduced an interpretable deep neural network (DNN) model that integrates a permutation feature importance test (PermFIT). PermFIT rigorously evaluates the impact of each feature on postoperative infection risk through a rigorous statistical inference. By using only the identified important features as inputs, the DNN’s predictive performance can be further enhanced. We conducted an extensive study using electronic health records (EHRs) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III), a large-scale ICU EHR database. Under the PermFIT framework, our DNN model effectively identifies significant factors associated with postoperative infections while delivering the most accurate postoperative infection risk predictions. These findings highlight the clinical utility of our proposed DNN framework in managing postoperative care for ICU surgical patients, ultimately improving their health outcomes.