A refined maximum predictability for next location prediction with fusion knowledge

Research on maximum predictability for next location prediction aims to derive the theoretical maximum accuracy that an ideal prediction model could achieve, which is crucial for analyzing travel regularity and evaluating prediction models. However, three problems remain: 1) The spatiotemporal information used in existing predictability measures is incomplete; 2) quantifying predictability across diverse spatiotemporal information is challenging due to the limitations of entropic measures; and 3) applications of predictability lack further analysis of individual regularity. In this work, we first summarized spatiotemporal information and categorized it into four types of spatiotemporal knowledge. Next, to better quantify predictability, we proposed a refined maximum predictability based on fusion knowledge and Shannon entropy. Finally, we leveraged individual spatiotemporal knowledge preferences based on the refined maximum predictability to analyze travel regularity and evaluate prediction models. Our experimental results showed that the proposed predictability achieved the best results in both the simulation dataset and actual datasets, with a simulation dataset’s mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.06. Furthermore, the evaluation results of prediction models indicated that personalized selection and full utilization of spatiotemporal knowledge are crucial for effective location prediction. This work provides insights into the design and improvement of location prediction models. Codes are available at https://github.com/hlh7/A-refined-maximum-predictability.