Unlocking cinnamon export success: Key determinants from the world’s top five producers

The purpose of this research study is to identify the factors affecting cinnamon export income (CEI) in the main five cinnamon export countries, namely China, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Madagascar and Vietnam for the period from 1992–2022. Secondary data was sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Bank. Based on the past literature, it has been found out that production volume (PV), domestic consumption (DC), exchange rate (ER) and cultivated land area (CLA) significantly impact on CEI. Simple Linear Regression models were applied to analyse the impact of the identified factors affecting CEI in the present study. The findings revealed, PV negatively impacts the export income of cinnamon in China, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam, while having a positive impact on Indonesia and Madagascar. Moreover, while DC appears to have a positive impact in Sri Lanka, it has a negative impact in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Madagascar for the same. Accordingly, ER is positive for countries Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam while adverse for Indonesia and China. In addition, the study proved that CLA positively influences CEI of China, Vietnam, and Madagascar but negatively for Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Consequently, the findings from this study greatly assist policymakers, exporters, and the industry professionals in executing strategies to enhance the export income & thereof export practices of cinnamon. Finally, this research addresses several gaps in cinnamon export studies, supporting sustainable growth and competitiveness in the sector.