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Impact of Chinese national centralized volume-based drug procurement policy on health costs and utilization: An interrupted time series analysis using panel data (2009–2022)

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  • Yishi Jiang
  • Guangsheng Wan
  • Yufeng Shi
  • Guiping Pu
  • Xiaojun Shao

Abstract

Introduction: Chinese volume-based procurement (VBP) policy, implemented nationally in 2019, represents a cornerstone of healthcare reform aiming to reduce drug prices through centralized drug procurement. While existing studies have demonstrated the success of the VBP policy in lowering drug costs, comprehensive assessments of system-wide impacts on healthcare expenditures and service utilization remain underexplored. This study evaluates its effects on outpatient and inpatient service costs and volumes. Materials and methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis using panel data (2009–2022) from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and the China Statistical Yearbook. Primary outcomes included CPI(Consumer Price Index)-adjusted per-visit outpatient(OP)/inpatient(IP) expenditures, hospital OP rates, hospital IP rates, and length of stay. Segmented regression models quantified immediate and long-term policy effects, with two-stage meta-analysis evaluating regional heterogeneity. Results and discussion: When the VBP implementation occurred, per-visit outpatient costs (β2 = 21.400, P

Suggested Citation

  • Yishi Jiang & Guangsheng Wan & Yufeng Shi & Guiping Pu & Xiaojun Shao, 2025. "Impact of Chinese national centralized volume-based drug procurement policy on health costs and utilization: An interrupted time series analysis using panel data (2009–2022)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(12), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0338409
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0338409
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