The mechanism of the ornamental plant variety rights value formation and enhancement strategy based on SEM-SD

With the acceleration of global urbanization, ornamental plants are playing an increasingly critical role in urban greening and climate regulation. Beyond improving urban landscapes, they mitigate the urban heat island effect through transpiration and enhance overall environmental quality. In developed countries, the surge of home gardening during the pandemic greatly stimulated the ornamental plant market, heightening interest in new variety development and the commercialization of plant variety rights. However, many newly bred ornamental varieties have failed to be effectively translated into productive resources, or their value has been underestimated, thereby constraining marketization. This study investigates the value formation mechanism of the Ornamental Plant Variety Rights (OPVR) and proposes optimization pathways for value enhancement. An OPVR value evaluation index system was first constructed through systematic literature review, expert consultation, and value chain analysis. A structural equation model (SEM) was then applied to examine the interrelationships among influencing factors, followed by a system dynamics (SD) model to explore the dynamic evolution of OPVR value and factor sensitivities. The SEM results indicate that four categories of factors contribute to OPVR value formation in the following order: variety value (Var)> technological level (Tec)> market and brand (Mar)> intellectual property protection (IPP). Specifically, variety value exerts both direct and indirect effects through its positive influence on technology and market performance, while IPP, though less influential, positively reinforces variety and market factors. The SD simulations further reveal that factor impacts are comparable during the first four years but diverge thereafter, with sensitivity ranking as follows: market and brand > technological level > variety value > intellectual property protection. Overall, this study clarifies the mechanisms underlying OPVR value formation and offers actionable insights for enterprises to design evidence-based strategies that enhance variety value, strengthen market positioning, and improve long-term competitiveness.