Predicting 30-day and 1-year mortality in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF)

Objectives: To develop and compare prediction models for 30-day and 1-year mortality in Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) using EHR data, utilizing both traditional and machine learning (ML) techniques. Background: HFpEF represents 1 in 2 heart failure patients. Predictive models in HFpEF, specifically those derived from electronic health record (EHR) data, are less established. Methods: Using MIMIC-IV EHR data from 2008−2019, patients aged ≥ 18 years admitted with a primary diagnosis of HFpEF were identified using ICD-9 and 10 codes. Demographics, vital signs, prior diagnoses, and lab data were extracted. Data was partitioned into 80% training, 20% test sets. Prediction models from seven model classes (Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Logistic Regression, Lasso Regression, Elastic Net, Random Forest, Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Classifier (HGBC), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)) were developed using various imputation and oversampling techniques with 5-fold cross-validation. Model performance was compared using several metrics, and individual feature importance assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis. Results: Among 3,235 hospitalizations for HFpEF, 30-day mortality was 6.3%, and 1- year mortality was 29.2%. Logistic regression performed well for 30-day mortality (Area Under the Receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.83), whereas Random Forest (AUC 0.79) and HGBC (AUC 0.78) for 1-year mortality. Age and NT-proBNP were the strongest predictors in SHAP analyses for both outcomes. Conclusion: Models derived from EHR data can predict mortality after HFpEF hospitalization with comparable performance to models derived from registry or trial data, highlighting the potential for clinical implementation.