Depression among older adults in Norway 1995–2019: Time trends, correlates, and future projections in a population study: The HUNT study

Objectives: To investigate patterns and correlates of depression among Norwegian older adults (age 70+), 1995–2019, and estimate the number of older adults with depression by 2050. Design: Population-based cross-sectional study Setting and participants: Three surveys of the Trøndelag Health Study (Norway): HUNT2 (1995−96), HUNT3 (2007−08), and HUNT4 (2017−19). 22,822 home dwellers aged 70 + who participated in at least one of the three surveys. Methods: Depression was defined as scores ≥8 on the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Covariates included sex, age, education, marital status, and reported loneliness. Depression prevalence (%) was standardized to the Norwegian population by age, sex, and education for years close to the initial HUNT survey year (1995, 2006, and 2016). Projection of the total number of individuals with depression in the coming decades were estimated. Predictors of depression were analyzed with logistic regression and the potential reduction in depression prevalence by reducing the prevalence of loneliness was estimated. Results: Standardized depression prevalence decreased from 16.7% (HUNT2) to 14.9% (HUNT3), and 11.5% (HUNT4), and was highest among men, the oldest (85+), the lower-educated, and in earlier surveys (all p