Oropouche fever outbreak in Brazil: Key factors behind the largest epidemic in history

Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arthropod-borne virus responsible for outbreaks of Oropouche fever (ORO) in Central and South America since the 1950s. Herein, we investigated the climatic and socioenvironmental factors contributing to the reemergence of ORO in Brazil in 2024, culminating in the largest epidemic in the country’s history. Accordingly, we conducted a modeling study to identify areas with the highest incidence of OROV in Brazil based on confirmed human cases between the 2020 and 2024 outbreaks and socioenvironmental variables. Our analysis utilized Maxent software, a machine learning algorithm for species distribution modeling, along with SatScan software to identify high- and low-risk spatial clusters. A total of 8,258 ORO cases were serologically confirmed in Brazil in 2024 and 108 in 2020/2021. The distribution of OROV differed markedly in 2020 and 2024: in 2020, cases were primarily confined to the Amazon region, while in 2024, cases expanded across nearly the entire country. High-risk areas showed higher temperatures and precipitation, and land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC) appeared to be key factors in ORO distribution. Upon comparing deforestation rates between 2020 and 2023, we noted a sharper increase in the expansion of pasture cover and soybean plantations in high-risk regions. Moreover, municipalities in high-risk clusters tended to face greater socioeconomic challenges, including poverty and restricted access to healthcare. Our study identified areas vulnerable to OROV circulation, providing valuable insights to support the establishment of robust public health policies that must be prioritized and strengthened in the context of climate change.