Predictive hybrid model of a grid-connected photovoltaic system with DC-DC converters under extreme altitude conditions at 3800 meters above sea level

This study aims to develop a predictive hybrid model for a grid-connected PV system with DC-DC optimizers, designed to operate in extreme altitude conditions at 3800 m above sea level. This approach seeks to address the “curse of dimensionality” by reducing model complexity and improving its accuracy by combining the recursive feature removal (RFE) method with advanced regularization techniques, such as Lasso, Ridge, and Bayesian Ridge. The research used a photovoltaic system composed of monocrystalline modules, DC-DC optimizers and a 3000 W inverter. The data obtained from the system were divided into training and test sets, where RFE identified the most relevant variables, eliminating the reactive power of AC. Subsequently, the three regularization models were trained with these selected variables and evaluated using metrics such as precision, mean absolute error, mean square error and coefficient of determination. The results showed that RFE - Bayesian Ridge obtained the highest accuracy (0.999935), followed by RFE - Ridge, while RFE - Lasso had a slightly lower performance and also obtained an exceptionally low MASE (0.0034 for Bayesian and Ridge, compared to 0.0065 for Lasso). All models complied with the necessary statistical validations, including linearity, error normality, absence of autocorrelation and homoscedasticity, which guaranteed their reliability. This hybrid approach proved effective in optimizing the predictive performance of PV systems under challenging conditions. Future work will explore the integration of these models with energy storage systems and smart control strategies to improve operational stability. In addition, the application of the hybrid model in extreme climates, such as desert or polar areas, will be investigated, as well as its extension through deep learning techniques to capture non-linear relationships and increase adaptability to abrupt climate variations.