Decline of German and rise of North-American hegemony in science: Insights from Nobel Prize nominations (Physics/Chemistry, 1901–1969)

This paper examines the shift in global scientific leadership from Germany to the United States using data on Nobel Prize nominations in Physics and Chemistry from 1901 to 1969. Building on the theoretical frameworks of Ben-David and Hollingsworth, we explore how nomination patterns reflect global shifts in scientific hegemony. In the early 20th century, Germany dominated the Nobel nomination process, with its scientists frequently acting both as nominators and nominees. During the 1930s, however, the United States rose to prominence, becoming the leading force in global science. By the mid-20th century, American scientists constituted a substantial share of both nominees and nominators, reflecting the nation’s emergence as a global research leader. Self-nomination trends align with this hegemonic transition. Despite their dominance in the nomination process during their respective periods of global leadership, neither country demonstrated a particular capacity to influence selection outcomes. Regression analysis reveals limited advantages for nominees from hegemonic nations and no consistent effects for nominators, illustrating the distinction between controlling nominations and shaping laureate selections. This study offers insights into the dynamics of scientific prestige and the relationship between national hegemony and institutional frameworks.