Explainable machine learning for predictive modeling of blowing snow detection and meteorological feature assessment using XGBoost-SHAP

Accurate forecasting of blowing snow events is vital for improving numerical models of snow processes, yet traditional predictive methods often lack interpretability. This study leverages eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) to detect blowing snow events using meteorological and snow flux monitoring data from three weather stations in the Alps. Through 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieved impressive performance metrics, with precision rates exceeding 0.94 for non-blowing snow events and 0.77-0.80 for blowing snow events. The SHAP framework was employed to analyze the relative importance of meteorological factors, revealing that maximum wind speed (WS-MAX), average wind speed (WS-AVG), air temperature (AT), and relative humidity (AH) are the most influential factors. Additionally, Partial dependence plots (PDP) demonstrated a linear correlation between increased WS-MAX and the probability of blowing snow, while WS-AVG showed diminishing returns beyond 10 m/s. Notably, AT below -3°C strongly correlates with blowing snow occurrence, whereas AT above -3°C exhibits a negative relationship. Relative humidity plays a significant role, with values exceeding 60% stabilizing the probability of blowing snow, peaking near 100%. This research contributes to drifting snow event dynamics by integrating explainable artificial intelligence techniques (XAI), thereby improving model interpretability and supporting data-driven decision-making in meteorological applications.