Predicting long-term functional anti-VEGF treatment outcomes in neovascular AMD in a real-world setting

Purpose: To test to what degree retinal fluid (RF) after the loading phase and at the end of year 1 predicts long-term functional outcomes in neovascular macular degeneration (nAMD), as do macular (MA) atrophy, treatment density and treatment interval extension. Methods: In this retrospective single-center cohort study, a consecutive series of eyes with treatment-naïve nAMD followed under a treat-and-extend (T&E) protocol followed over ≥2 years. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), presence of retinal fluid (RF) and macular atrophy (MA) were registered along with central retinal thickness (CRT) and treatment density over time. The relationship between these variables was tested by regression analysis. Results: A total of 433 eyes were followed for 4.9 ± 2.2 years. A series of univariate analyses were run to select the covariates for the final multivariate regression model. CRT after loading, time to dryness, intraretinal fluid and MA after one year were found to predict visual function over 2 to 5 years. A final regression model was adjusted for visual acuity (VA) at baseline and showed that CRT after loading was predictive only in the short term (2 years) and that MA had the greatest predictive value for VA after 2 to 5 years. Intraretinal fluid (IRF) significantly predicted VA only after 4 years. The final regression model explained 21 to 32% of the variation in VA. Conclusions: In this large retrospective cohort, the presence of MA after one year was the strongest predictor of VA after 2 to 5 years, explaining a vision loss of 13 to 20 letters. The presence of IRF and SRF at any point of time had a comparably weak predictive potential for the outcomes over 5 and more years.