Coupled intelligent prediction model for medium- to long-term runoff based on teleconnection factors selection and spatial-temporal analysis

Accurate medium- to long-term runoff forecasting is of great significance for flood control, drought mitigation, comprehensive water resource management, and ecological restoration. However, runoff formation is a complex process influenced by various natural and anthropogenic factors, resulting in nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and long prediction periods, which complicate forecasting efforts. Traditional statistical models, which primarily focus on individual runoff sequences, struggle to integrate multi-source data, limiting their predictive accuracy. This narrow approach overlooks the multifaceted variables influencing runoff, resulting in incomplete and less reliable predictions. To address these challenges, we selected and integrated Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Multilayer Perceptron Regression (MLPR) to develop two coupled intelligent prediction models—RF-SVR and RF-MLPR—due to their complementary strengths. RF effectively removes collinear and redundant information from high-dimensional data, while SVR and MLPR handle nonlinearity and nonstationarity, offering enhanced generalization capabilities. Specifically, MLPR, with its deep learning structure, can extract more complex latent information from data, making it particularly suitable for long-term forecasting. The proposed models were tested in the Yalong River Basin (YLRB), where accurate medium- to long-term runoff forecasts are essential for ecological management, flood control, and optimal water resource allocation. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The impact of atmospheric circulation indices on YLRB runoff exhibits a one-month lag, providing crucial insights for water resource scheduling and flood prevention. (2) The coupled models effectively eliminate collinearity and redundant variables, improving prediction accuracy across all forecast periods. (3) Compared to single baseline models, the coupled models demonstrated significant performance improvements across six evaluation metrics. For instance, the RF-MLPR model achieved a 3.7%–6.5% improvement in the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) metric across four hydrological stations compared to the RF-SVR model. (4) Prediction accuracy decreased with longer forecast periods, with the R2 value dropping from 0.8886 for a 1-month forecast to 0.6358 for a 12-month forecast, indicating the increasing challenge of long-term predictions due to greater uncertainty and the accumulation of influencing factors over time. (5) The RF-MLPR model outperformed the RF-SVR model, demonstrating a superior ability to capture the complex, nonlinear relationships inherent in the data. For example, in terms of the R2 metric, the RF-MLPR model’s performance at the Jinping hydrological station improved by 6.5% compared to the RF-SVR model. Similarly, at the Lianghekou station, for a one-month lead prediction period, the RF-MLPR model’s R2 value was 7.9% higher than that of the RF-SVR model. The significance of this research lies not only in its contribution to improving hydrological prediction accuracy but also in its broader applicability. The proposed coupled prediction models provide practical tools for water resource management, flood control planning, and drought mitigation in regions with similar hydrological characteristics. Furthermore, the framework’s flexibility in parameterization and its ability to integrate multi-source data offer valuable insights for interdisciplinary applications across environmental sciences, meteorology, and climate prediction, making it a globally relevant contribution to addressing water management challenges under changing climatic conditions.