The impact of new urbanization on water ecological resilience: An empirical study from central China

Given the multitude of risks and challenges faced by the water ecological environment during urbanization, enhancing water ecological resilience and improving the water ecological environment have emerged as crucial topics in China’s economic and social development, as well as its ecological civilization construction. This study proposes a research hypothesis on the relationship between new urbanization and water ecological resilience. Employing various econometric models such as the extended STIRPAT model, dynamic panel model, panel threshold effect model, dynamic panel mediating effect model and dynamic panel difference-in-difference model, empirical tests were conducted to examine the impact of new urbanization on water ecological resilience in central China. The findings indicate that: (1) there exists a U-shaped curve relationship with a threshold effect between new urbanization and water ecological resilience; this conclusion remains valid even after conducting several robustness tests including extreme value treatment, re-measurement of independent variables, and replacement of econometric models. (2) In regions with lower levels of new urbanization, new urbanization exerts more significant stress effect on water ecological resilience through economic scale effect, population scale effect, investment pulling effect and foreign trade effect; whereas in regions with higher levels of new urbanization, new urbanization exerts more significant positive effect on water ecological resilience through factors agglomeration effect, technological progress effect, human capital effect, industrial structure effect and marketization effect. (3) Compared to non-pilot cities, the implementation of comprehensive pilot policies for new urbanization has significantly improved the water ecological resilience of cities in central China and the promotion of new urbanization of pilot cities contributes to enhancing water ecological resilience.