IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0307092.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction of daily new COVID-19 cases ‐ Difficulties and possible solutions

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoping Liu
  • A Courtney DeVries

Abstract

Epidemiological compartmental models, such as SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered) models, have been generally used in analyzing epidemiological data and forecasting the trajectory of transmission of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Experience shows that accurately forecasting the trajectory of COVID-19 transmission curve is a big challenge for researchers in the field of epidemiological modeling because multiple unquantified factors can affect the trajectory of COVID-19 transmission. In the past years, we used a new compartmental model, l-i SEIR model, to analyze the COVID-19 transmission trend in the United States. Unlike the conventional SEIR model and the delayed SEIR model that use or partially use the approximation of temporal homogeneity, the l-i SEIR model takes into account chronological order of infected individuals in both latent (l) period and infectious (i) period, and thus improves the accuracy in forecasting the trajectory of transmission of infectious diseases, especially during periods of rapid rise or fall in the number of infections. This paper describes (1) how to use the new SEIR model (a mechanistic model) combined with fitting methods to simulate or predict trajectory of COVID-19 transmission, (2) how social interventions and new variants of COVID-19 significantly change COVID-19 transmission trends by changing transmission rate coefficient βn, the fraction of susceptible people (Sn/N), and the reinfection rate, (3) why accurately forecasting COVID-19 transmission trends is difficult, (4) what are the strategies that we have used to improve the forecast outcome and (5) what are some successful examples that we have obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoping Liu & A Courtney DeVries, 2024. "Prediction of daily new COVID-19 cases ‐ Difficulties and possible solutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(8), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0307092
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0307092
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0307092&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0307092?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaoping Liu, 2023. "Analytical solution of l-i SEIR model–Comparison of l-i SEIR model with conventional SEIR model in simulation of epidemic curves," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Nina Breinholt Stærke & Joanne Reekie & Henrik Nielsen & Thomas Benfield & Lothar Wiese & Lene Surland Knudsen & Mette Brouw Iversen & Kasper Iversen & Kamille Fogh & Jacob Bodilsen & Maria Ruwald Juh, 2022. "Levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among fully vaccinated individuals with Delta or Omicron variant breakthrough infections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      More about this item

      Statistics

      Access and download statistics

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0307092. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.