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Geographical distribution and the impact of socio-environmental indicators on incidence of Mpox in Ontario, Canada

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  • Chigozie Louisa J Ugwu
  • Ali Asgary
  • Jianhong Wu
  • Jude Dzevela Kong
  • Nicola Luigi Bragazzi
  • James Orbinski
  • Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima

Abstract

Background: Ontario, being one of Canada’s largest provinces, has been central to the high incidence of human Mpox. Research is scarce on how socio-environmental factors influence Mpox incidences. This study seeks to explore potential geographical correlations and the relationship between indicators of social marginalization and Mpox incidence rate in Ontario. Methodology: We used surveillance data on confirmed human Mpox cases from May 1, 2022, to March 31, 2024, extracted from the Public Health Ontario website for this study. Spatial autocorrelation of Mpox incidence was investigated using spatial methods including Moran’s Index, Getis–Ord Gi*statistic, and spatial Poisson scan statistic. Following this, we adopted a generalized Poisson regression (GPR) model to estimate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) based on the association between Ontario PHU-level marginalization and Mpox incidence, while adjusting for age and sex. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed using the Log Likelihood (LL), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Akaike’s Information Criterion corrected (AICc), and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Results: Our analysis revealed significant localized spatial heterogeneity in Mpox incidence across Ontario. Statistically significant local clusters of Mpox cases were identified in Toronto (RR=11.34,LL=511.97 ), Ottawa (RR=3.21,LL=19.88), and a secondary cluster, overlapping Hamilton PHU with nine local districts (RR=2.07,LL=9.64), all with p−value

Suggested Citation

  • Chigozie Louisa J Ugwu & Ali Asgary & Jianhong Wu & Jude Dzevela Kong & Nicola Luigi Bragazzi & James Orbinski & Woldegebriel Assefa Woldegerima, 2025. "Geographical distribution and the impact of socio-environmental indicators on incidence of Mpox in Ontario, Canada," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(3), pages 1-27, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0306681
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306681
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