The role of hesitancy and infrastructure in the equity and efficiency of COVID-19 vaccine administration

After the first COVID-19 vaccines received emergency use authorization from the U.S. FDA in December 2020, U.S. states employed vaccine eligibility and administration plans (VEAPs) that determined when subgroups of residents would become eligible to receive the vaccine while the vaccine supply was still limited. During the implementation of these plans, public concern grew over whether the VEAPs and vaccine allocations from the federal government were resulting in an equitable and efficient vaccine distribution. In this study, we collected data on five states’ VEAPs, federal vaccine allocations, vaccine administration, and vaccine hesitancy to assess the equity of vaccine access and vaccine administration efficiency that manifested during the campaign. Our results suggest that residents in states which opened eligibility to the vaccine sooner had more competition among residents to receive the vaccine than occurred in other states. Regardless of states’ VEAPs, there was a consistent inefficiency in vaccine administration among all five states that could be attributed to both state and federal infrastructure deficits. A closer examination revealed a misalignment between federal vaccine allocations and the total eligible population in the states throughout the campaign, even when accounting for hesitancy. We conclude that in order to maximize the efficiency of future mass-vaccination campaigns, the federal and state governments should design adaptable allocation policies and eligibility plans that better match the true, real-time supply and demand for vaccines by accounting for vaccine hesitancy and manufacturing capacity. Further, we discuss the challenges of implementing such strategies.