Revealing the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and convergence law of agricultural land transfer in China

The transfer of land plays a crucial role in revitalizing land resources, acting as a catalyst for promoting the high-quality development of agriculture. The land transfer ratio is a crucial metric for assessing the progress of rural land transfer and the effective allocation of rural land resources. Thus, this study examines the rural land transfer ratio across 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020. The study explores the distribution characteristics of the ratio using the rank-size rule and trend surface analysis. The LISA space-time transition method is employed to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of the rural land transfer ratio and examine its convergence. The study aims to comprehensively analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and evolutionary patterns of rural land transfer in China, illustrating the convergence and influencing factors during the development process. The results indicate that: (1) The rural land transfer ratio in China is generally increasing, with a spatial pattern showing an upward trend from west to east and from north to south. The main spatial contrast is between the eastern and western regions, with a relatively minor distinction between the southern and northern regions. (2) The LISA space-time transition highlights a significant spatial locking effect in China’s rural land transfer ratio, suggesting strong spatial integration in its evolution. (3) Clear indications of σ convergence, absolute β convergence, and club convergence are evident in China’s rural land transfer ratio. This suggests a gradual reduction in internal disparities among provinces and regions, where areas with higher land transfer ratios influence spatial spillover effects on adjacent lower areas. (4) Factors such as transportation infrastructure, irrigation, water conservancy construction, and farmers’ per capita income collectively influence the spatial and temporal evolution of China’s rural land transfer ratio, with dominant driving factors varying across different periods.