Evaluating the impact of China’s MSW sorting pilot policy on urban sustainable development: Empirical evidence from 95 cities

The escalating challenge of municipal solid waste (MSW) critically tests the sustainable development capacities of urban centers. In response, China initiated pilot policies in 2017 aimed at bolstering MSW management. The effectiveness of these initiatives, however, necessitates empirical scrutiny. This study leverages panel data spanning 95 cities at the prefectural level or higher, covering the period from 2006 to 2020, to assess the impact of the MSW sorting pilot policy on urban sustainable development using a difference-in-differences approach. The research found that the MSW sorting pilot policy has significantly increased the processing volume of MSW, thereby enhancing the sustainable development capabilities of cities. Further, the study identifies augmented fixed asset investments as a key mechanism through which pilot cities have enhanced their MSW management capabilities. Notably, the policy’s stimulative effects are more pronounced in less densely populated and economically lagging regions. These findings provide critical insights for developing nations in shaping MSW sorting strategies and advancing urban sustainability.