The net effect of wealth on health—Investigating noncommunicable diseases mortality in the context of regional affluence

The wealth-health relationship is not unambiguous and constant. Greater wealth affects individual and population health in opposite ways. Increased risk factors especially raise the probability of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) impacting a population. Conversely, better healthcare and awareness reduce the chances of developing these diseases or increase the likelihood of treatment and cure. Therefore, this paper aims to assess and quantify the hard-to-grasp overall impact of prosperity on mortality from selected NCDs, allowing us to capture the relevant differences between European regions. In particular, we attempt to estimate the net effect of affluence and the health economic threshold of the GDP-mortality relationship, by developing a dedicated analytical tool based on joinpoint regression and forecasting methods. Our results show that in the case of most investigated diseases in more impoverished regions, a clear pattern reflects mortality rising with prosperity. After crossing the health economic threshold of around 20 thousand euros per capita, the trend changes by stabilising or reversing. The research we present shows that health policy should be more diversified locally to enable health convergence at the national and European regional levels. Moreover, health policy should evolve to prioritise mental and neurological disorders, by improving the resource allocation and increasing public awareness.