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Estimating subnational excess mortality in times of pandemic. An application to French départements in 2020

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  • Florian Bonnet
  • Carlo-Giovanni Camarda

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic’s uneven impact on subnational regions highlights the importance of understanding its local-level mortality impact. Vital statistics are available for an increasing number of countries for 2020, 2021, and 2022, facilitating the computation of subnational excess mortality and a more comprehensive assessment of its burden. However, this calculation faces two important methodological challenges: it requires appropriate mortality projection models; and small populations imply considerable, though commonly neglected, uncertainty in the estimates. We address both issues using a method to forecast mortality at the subnational level, which incorporates uncertainty in the computation of mortality measures. We illustrate our approach by examining French départements (NUTS 3 regions, or 95 geographical units), and produce sex-specific estimates for 2020. This approach is highly flexible, allowing one to estimate excess mortality during COVID-19 in most demographic scenarios and for past pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Bonnet & Carlo-Giovanni Camarda, 2024. "Estimating subnational excess mortality in times of pandemic. An application to French départements in 2020," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(1), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0293752
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293752
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