IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0281899.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases

Author

Listed:
  • Naila Shoaib
  • Asim Iqbal
  • Farhad Ali Shah
  • Wajeeha Zainab
  • Maham Qasim
  • Noore Zerqoon
  • Muhammad Omer Naseem
  • Rimsha Munir
  • Nousheen Zaidi

Abstract

Background: Recent studies indicate that the population-level SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold (Ct) values can inform the trajectory of the pandemic. The presented study investigates the potential of Ct values in predicting the future of COVID-19 cases. We also determined whether the presence of symptoms could change the correlation between Ct values and future cases. Methods: We examined the individuals (n = 8660) that consulted different sample collection points of a private diagnostic center in Pakistan for COVID-19 testing between June 2020 and December 2021. The medical assistant collected clinical and demographic information. The nasopharyngeal swab specimens were taken from the study participants and real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in these samples. Results: We observed that median Ct values display significant temporal variations, which show an inverse relationship with future cases. The monthly overall median Ct values negatively correlated with the number of cases occurring one month after specimen collection (r = -0.588, p

Suggested Citation

  • Naila Shoaib & Asim Iqbal & Farhad Ali Shah & Wajeeha Zainab & Maham Qasim & Noore Zerqoon & Muhammad Omer Naseem & Rimsha Munir & Nousheen Zaidi, 2023. "Population-level median cycle threshold (Ct) values for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases can predict the trajectory of future cases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(3), pages 1-8, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0281899
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0281899
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0281899&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0281899?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0281899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.