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A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang

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  • Yingdan Wang
  • Chunjie Gao
  • Tiantian Zhao
  • Haiyan Jiao
  • Ying Liao
  • Zengyun Hu
  • Lei Wang

Abstract

In this paper, we separately constructed ARIMA, ARIMAX, and RNN models to determine whether there exists an impact of the air pollutants (such as PM2.5, PM10, CO, O3, NO2, and SO2) on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases from January 2014 to December 2018 in Urumqi, Xinjiang. In addition, by using a new comprehensive evaluation index DISO to compare the performance of three models, it was demonstrated that ARIMAX (1,1,2) × (0,1,1)12 + PM2.5 (lag = 12) model was the optimal one, which was applied to predict the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi from January 2019 to December 2019. The predicting results were in good agreement with the actual pulmonary tuberculosis cases and shown that pulmonary tuberculosis cases obviously declined, which indicated that the policies of environmental protection and universal health checkups in Urumqi have been very effective in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Yingdan Wang & Chunjie Gao & Tiantian Zhao & Haiyan Jiao & Ying Liao & Zengyun Hu & Lei Wang, 2023. "A comparative study of three models to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Urumqi, Xinjiang," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0277314
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277314
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    1. Vicente Navarro Valencia & Yamilka Díaz & Juan Miguel Pascale & Maciej F. Boni & Javier E. Sanchez-Galan, 2021. "Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-18, November.
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