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A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Alexandra Catano-Lopez
  • Daniel Rojas-Diaz
  • Diana Paola Lizarralde-Bejarano
  • María Eugenia Puerta Yepes

Abstract

In mathematical epidemiology, it is usual to implement compartmental models to study the transmission of diseases, allowing comprehension of the outbreak dynamics. Thus, it is necessary to identify the natural history of the disease and to establish promissory relations between the structure of a mathematical model, as well as its parameters, with control-related strategies (real interventions) and relevant socio-cultural behaviors. However, we identified gaps between the model creation and its implementation for the use of decision-makers for policy design. We aim to cover these gaps by proposing a discrete mathematical model with parameters having intuitive meaning to be implemented to help decision-makers in control policy design. The model considers novel contagion probabilities, quarantine, and diffusion processes to represent the recovery and mortality dynamics. We applied mathematical model for COVID-19 to Colombia and some of its localities; moreover, the model structure could be adapted for other diseases. Subsequently, we implemented it on a web platform (MathCOVID) for the usage of decision-makers to simulate the effect of policies such as lock-downs, social distancing, identification in the contagion network, and connectivity among populations. Furthermore, it was possible to assess the effects of migration and vaccination strategies as time-dependent inputs. Finally, the platform was capable of simulating the effects of applying one or more policies simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Catano-Lopez & Daniel Rojas-Diaz & Diana Paola Lizarralde-Bejarano & María Eugenia Puerta Yepes, 2023. "A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0275546
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275546
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhaohui Su, 2021. "Rigorous Policy-Making Amid COVID-19 and Beyond: Literature Review and Critical Insights," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Teresa K Yamana & Sasikiran Kandula & Jeffrey Shaman, 2017. "Individual versus superensemble forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks in the United States," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
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