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Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico

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  • Pablo Carlos López Vázquez
  • Gilberto Sánchez González
  • Jorge Martínez Ortega
  • Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte

Abstract

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Carlos López Vázquez & Gilberto Sánchez González & Jorge Martínez Ortega & Renato Salomón Arroyo Duarte, 2022. "Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(9), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0275216
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0275216
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