Evaluation and prediction of land ecological security in Shenzhen based on DPSIR-TOPSIS-GM(1,1) model

Land ecological security is the core of regional coordinated economic development and land ecological security planning. In this paper, with Shenzhen as the research area, 28 evaluation indicators were selected from 5 dimensions based on the DPSIR model to construct an indicator system for land ecological security evaluation, so as to evaluate the land ecological security status in the research area from 2009 to 2019. Based on the TOPSIS evaluation model, regional levels were determined, and finally the GM (1,1) model was adopted to scientifically predict the land ecological security system of Shenzhen from 2020 to 2025. The results showed that: (1) from the perspective of the main influencing factors, the weight of 16 indicators of Shenzhen’s land ecological security exceeds 0.03, including the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (D5) and Engel coefficient (I4). These factors are the main factors that have led to the deterioration of land ecological security in Shenzhen in the past decade; (2) comprehensive situation analysis revealed that from 2009 to 2019, the level of land ecological security in Shenzhen exhibited an increasing trend overall, but the land ecological security in Shenzhen still needs to be greatly improved; (3) regarding various subsystems, from 2009 to 2019, except the pressure subsystem which was in a downward trend, other subsystems showed a fluctuating and upward trend; (4) after modeling and calculation using the GM (1,1) model, it was concluded that most of the indicator factors are in a slow growing trend with the social and economic development of Shenzhen, but severe land ecological problem still exists. The research result is expected to provide a reference for the stable and sustainable development of society and economy and regional land ecosystem protection.