Predictors of school students’ leisure-time physical activity: An extended trans-contextual model using Bayesian path analysis

The present study aimed to examine effects of motivational and social cognition constructs on children’s leisure-time physical activity participation alongside constructs representing implicit processes using an extended trans-contextual model. The study adopted a correlational prospective design. Secondary-school students (N = 502) completed self-report measures of perceived autonomy support from physical education (PE) teachers, autonomous motivation in PE and leisure-time contexts, and social cognition constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control), intentions, trait self-control, habits, and past behavior in a leisure-time physical activity context. Five weeks later, students (N = 298) self-reported their leisure-time physical activity participation. Bayesian path analyses supported two key premises of the model: perceived autonomy support was related to autonomous motivation in PE, and autonomous motivation in PE was related to autonomous motivation in leisure time. Indirect effects indicated that both forms of autonomous motivation were related to social cognition constructs and intentions. However, intention was not related to leisure-time physical activity participation, so model variables reflecting motivational processes did not account for substantive variance in physical activity participation. Self-control, attitudes, and past behavior were direct predictors of intentions and leisure-time physical activity participation. There were indirect effects of autonomous motivation in leisure time on intentions and physical activity participation mediated by self-control. Specifying informative priors for key model relations using Bayesian analysis yielded greater precision for some model effects. Findings raise some questions on the predictive validity of constructs from the original trans-contextual model in the current sample, but highlight the value of extending the model to incorporate additional constructs representing non-conscious processes.