A machine learning approach to predict extreme inactivity in COPD patients using non-activity-related clinical data

Facilitating the identification of extreme inactivity (EI) has the potential to improve morbidity and mortality in COPD patients. Apart from patients with obvious EI, the identification of a such behavior during a real-life consultation is unreliable. We therefore describe a machine learning algorithm to screen for EI, as actimetry measurements are difficult to implement. Complete datasets for 1409 COPD patients were obtained from COLIBRI-COPD, a database of clinicopathological data submitted by French pulmonologists. Patient- and pulmonologist-reported estimates of PA quantity (daily walking time) and intensity (domestic, recreational, or fitness-directed) were first used to assign patients to one of four PA groups (extremely inactive [EI], overtly active [OA], intermediate [INT], inconclusive [INC]). The algorithm was developed by (i) using data from 80% of patients in the EI and OA groups to identify ‘phenotype signatures’ of non-PA-related clinical variables most closely associated with EI or OA; (ii) testing its predictive validity using data from the remaining 20% of EI and OA patients; and (iii) applying the algorithm to identify EI patients in the INT and INC groups. The algorithm’s overall error for predicting EI status among EI and OA patients was 13.7%, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84 (95% confidence intervals: 0.75–0.92). Of the 577 patients in the INT/INC groups, 306 (53%) were reclassified as EI by the algorithm. Patient- and physician- reported estimation may underestimate EI in a large proportion of COPD patients. This algorithm may assist physicians in identifying patients in urgent need of interventions to promote PA.