The short- and long-term temporal relation between falls and concern about falling in older adults without a recent history of falling

Background and aim: The reciprocal relation between falling and concern about falling is complex and not well understood. We aimed to determine whether concern about falling increases after a fall and whether concern about falling increases the odds of future falls in community-dwelling older adults without a recent fall history. Methods: We selected 118 community-dwelling older adults (mean age: 71.4 (SD: 5.3) years) without a self-reported history of falling, one year prior to baseline assessment, from the one-year VIBE cohort for analyses. On a monthly basis, we recorded concern about falling (using the Falls Efficacy Scale-International, FES-I), as well as the occurrence of falls (through questionnaires and telephone calls). We determined 1) whether falling predicts an increase in concern about falling and 2) whether a high concern about falling is predictive of falling. Standard linear (fixed-effects) regression and mixed effects regression analyses were performed over long-term, i.e. one year, and short-term, i.e. one-month, intervals, respectively and were adjusted for gender, age and physical activity (quantified as the average total walking duration per day). Analyses were performed separately for all reported falls and for injurious falls only. Results: High concern about falling at baseline did not predict falls over the course of one year, nor over the course of one month. Furthermore, falls in between baseline assessment and one year thereafter did not predict increased concern about falling from baseline to one year later, independent of whether all falls or only injurious falls were considered. However, falls, either all or injurious only, happening somewhere over the course of a one-month interval, significantly predicted small increases in concern about falling (1.49 FES-I points, 95% CI [0.74, 2.25], p