IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0230964.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model

Author

Listed:
  • Soyoung Kim
  • Aurelio A de los Reyes V
  • Eunok Jung

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 causes of death globally and the leading cause of death by a single infectious pathogen. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the End TB Strategy, which targets a 90% reduction in the incidence rate by the year 2035 compared to the level in the year 2015. In this work, a TB model is considered to understand the transmission dynamics in the top three TB burden countries—India, China, and Indonesia. Country-specific epidemiological parameters were identified using data reported by the WHO. If India and Indonesia succeed in enhancing their treatment protocols and increase treatment and treatment success rate to that of China, the incidence rate could be reduced by 65.99% and 68.49%, respectively, by the end of 2035. Evidently, complementary interventions are essential to achieve the WHO target. Our analytical approach utilizes optimal control theory to obtain time-dependent nonpharmaceutical and latent case finding controls. The objective functional of the optimal control problem includes a payoff term reflecting the goal set by WHO. Appropriate combinations of control strategies are investigated. Based on the results, gradual enhancement and continuous implementation of intervention measures are recommended in each country.

Suggested Citation

  • Soyoung Kim & Aurelio A de los Reyes V & Eunok Jung, 2020. "Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230964
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0230964
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0230964&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0230964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.