Investigating multisite pain as a predictor of self-reported falls and falls requiring health care use in an older population: A prospective cohort study

Older people are continuing to fall despite fall prevention guidelines targeting known falls’ risk factors. Multisite pain is a potential novel falls’ risk factor requiring further exploration. This study hypothesises that: (1) an increasing number of pain sites and widespread pain predicts self-reported falls and falls recorded in primary and secondary healthcare records; (2) those relationships are independent of known falls’ risk factors and putative confounders. This prospective cohort study linked data from self-completed questionnaires, primary care electronic health records, secondary care admission statistics and national mortality data. Between 2002–2005, self-completion questionnaires were mailed to community-dwelling individuals aged 50 years and older registered with one of eight general practices in North Staffordshire, UK(n = 26,129) yielding 18,497 respondents. 11,375 respondents entered the study; 4386 completed six year follow-up. Self-reported falls were extracted from three and six year follow-up questionnaires. Falls requiring healthcare were extracted from routinely collected primary and secondary healthcare data. Increasing number of pain sites increased odds of future 3 year (odds ratio 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.24)) and 6 year self-reported fall (odds ratio 1.02 (1.00–1.03)) and increased hazard of future fall requiring primary healthcare (hazard ratio 1.01 (1.00–1.03)). The presence of widespread pain increased odds of future 3 year (odds ratio 1.27 (0.92–1.75)) and 6 year fall (odds ratio 1.43(1.06–1.95)) and increased hazard of future fall requiring primary healthcare (hazard ratio 1.27(0.98–1.65)). Multisite pain was not associated with future fall requiring secondary care admission. Multisite pain must be included as a falls’ risk factor in guidelines to ensure clinicians identify their older patients at risk of falls and employ timely implementation of current falls prevention strategies.