Projecting burden of hypertension and its management in Turkey, 2015-2030

Background: In Turkey, hypertension was responsible for 13% of total deaths in 2015. We apply existing research finding regarding the impact of a population-wide reduction in sodium consumption on the decrease of the hypertension prevalence rate among 15+ years population and the gender-age specific reduction in total death rates among 30+ years population, and compare hypertension burden, averted deaths, costs and benefits between two scenarios. Methods: The first scenario (i.e. status quo) assumes constant hypertension prevalence rate and the death rates between 2015 and 2030. Based on the Framingham Heart Study and INTERSALT Study findings on the impact of salt-reduction strategies on hypertension prevalence rate, the second scenario (Scenario II) assumes a 17% reduction in the prevalence of hypertension in Turkey in 2030, from its 2015 prevalence level. We project hypertension attributable disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2030, monetize DALYs using GDP (and income) per capita, and compare the projected economic benefits of DALYs averted and the additional costs associated with the increases in hypertension treatment through antihypertensive medications and physician consultations. Results: The estimated benefits of reducing the economic burden of hypertension deaths outweigh the cost of providing hypertension treatment. A decrease in hypertension prevalence by 17%, attributable to population-wide reduction in salt consumption, is projected to avert 24.3 thousand deaths in 2030. We projected that, compared to status quo, 392 thousand DALYs will be averted in Scenario II in 2030. The economic benefits of reduction in potential hypertension deaths are estimated to be 6.7 to 8.6 folds higher than the additional cost of hypertension treatment. Conclusion: Population-wide hypertension prevention and management is a win-win situation for public health and the Turkish health care system as the economic benefits of reducing deaths and disabilities associated with hypertension outweigh the costs significantly.