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Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

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  • Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar
  • Thomas J R Finnie
  • Barney Sloane
  • Ian M Hall

Abstract

Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar & Thomas J R Finnie & Barney Sloane & Ian M Hall, 2019. "Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-12, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0211633
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211633
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan Agresti & Yongyi Min, 2005. "Frequentist Performance of Bayesian Confidence Intervals for Comparing Proportions in 2 × 2 Contingency Tables," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 515-523, June.
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