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Seasonal patterns of tuberculosis case notification in the tropics of Africa: A six-year trend analysis in Ethiopia

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Listed:
  • Z Gashu
  • D Jerene
  • D G Datiko
  • N Hiruy
  • S Negash
  • K Melkieneh
  • D Bekele
  • G Nigussie
  • P G Suarez
  • A Hadgu

Abstract

Objective: Seasonal variations affect the health system’s functioning, including tuberculosis (TB) services, but there is little evidence about seasonal variations in TB case notification in tropical countries, including Ethiopia. This study sought to fill this gap in knowledge using TB data reported from 10 zones, 5 each from Amhara and Oromia regions. Methods: Notified TB cases for 2010–2016 were analyzed using SPSS version 20. We calculated the quarterly and annual average TB case notification rates and the proportion of seasonal amplitudes. We applied Winters’ multiplicative method of exponential smoothing to break down the original time series into seasonal, trend, and irregular components and to build a suitable model for forecasting. Results: A total of 205,575 TB cases were identified (47.8% from Amhara, 52.2% from Oromia), with a male-to-female ratio of 1.2:1. The means of 8,200 (24%), 7,992 (23%), 8,849 (26%), and 9,222 (27%) TB cases were reported during July-September, October-December, January-March, and April-June, respectively. The seasonal component of our model indicated a peak in April-June and a trough in October-December. The seasonal amplitude in Amhara region is 10% greater than that of Oromia (p

Suggested Citation

  • Z Gashu & D Jerene & D G Datiko & N Hiruy & S Negash & K Melkieneh & D Bekele & G Nigussie & P G Suarez & A Hadgu, 2018. "Seasonal patterns of tuberculosis case notification in the tropics of Africa: A six-year trend analysis in Ethiopia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0207552
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0207552
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