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Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering

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  • Jessica Hullman
  • Paul Resnick
  • Eytan Adar

Abstract

Many visual depictions of probability distributions, such as error bars, are difficult for users to accurately interpret. We present and study an alternative representation, Hypothetical Outcome Plots (HOPs), that animates a finite set of individual draws. In contrast to the statistical background required to interpret many static representations of distributions, HOPs require relatively little background knowledge to interpret. Instead, HOPs enables viewers to infer properties of the distribution using mental processes like counting and integration. We conducted an experiment comparing HOPs to error bars and violin plots. With HOPs, people made much more accurate judgments about plots of two and three quantities. Accuracy was similar with all three representations for most questions about distributions of a single quantity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica Hullman & Paul Resnick & Eytan Adar, 2015. "Hypothetical Outcome Plots Outperform Error Bars and Violin Plots for Inferences about Reliability of Variable Ordering," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0142444
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142444
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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:5:p:863-880 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Beecham, Roger & Lovelace, Robin, 2022. "A framework for inserting visually-supported inferences into geographical analysis workflow: application to road safety research," OSF Preprints mfja8, Center for Open Science.
    3. Andrew Gelman & Jessica Hullman & Christopher Wlezien & George Elliott Morris, 2020. "Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 863-880, September.
    4. Roger Beecham & Yuanxuan Yang & Caroline Tait & Robin Lovelace, 2023. "Connected bikeability in London: Which localities are better connected by bike and does this matter?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(8), pages 2103-2117, October.

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