Longitudinal Study of the Decline in Renal Function in Healthy Subjects

Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important concern in preventive medicine, but the rate of decline in renal function in healthy population is not well defined. The purpose of this study was to determine reference values for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and rate of decline of eGFR in healthy subjects and to evaluate factors associated with this decline using a large cohort in Japan. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were performed with healthy subjects aged ≥18 years old who received a medical checkup. Reference values for eGFR were obtained using a nonparametric method and those for decline of eGFR were calculated by mixed model analysis. Relationships of eGFR decline rate with baseline variables were examined using a linear least-squares method. Results: In the cross-sectional study, reference values for eGFR were obtained by gender and age in 72,521 healthy subjects. The mean (±SD) eGFR was 83.7±14.7ml/min/1.73m2. In the longitudinal study, reference values for eGFR decline rate were obtained by gender, age, and renal stage in 45,586 healthy subjects. In the same renal stage, there was little difference in the rate of decline regardless of age. The decline in eGFR depended on the renal stage and was strongly related to baseline eGFR, with a faster decline with a higher baseline eGFR and a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR. The mean (±SD) eGFR decline rate was ‒1.07±0.42ml/min/1.73m2/year (‒1.29±0.41%/year) in subjects with a mean eGFR of 81.5±11.6ml/min/1.73m2. Conclusions: The present study clarified for the first time the reference values for the rate of eGFR decline stratified by gender, age, and renal stage in healthy subjects. The rate of eGFR decline depended mainly on baseline eGFR, but not on age, with a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR.